
Issue No 76		03 November 2000

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US Election

Sugar Candy Politics

Like in everything else, Americans like their politics sugar coated. A Nation in denial, they are happier maintaining the fantasy that the world is a fine and dandy place says Michael Gadiel.


	Michael Gadiel

Hooked on breast implants, pop music, cars, fast food, diets, exercise equipment, guns and television - they have a political culture to match.

Repeatedly making flawed attempts at cushioning themselves from the harsher edges of reality, they promote politicians who aspire to high and noble ideals that are unachievable given the political environment of television and money in which they operate. America is dreaming - Australia's politics seem very real and gritty by comparison.

Nevertheless - if only because we consume more intellectual product from America than from our own country, because they dominate the Internet, the movies, video games and television - anything that happens in America will inevitably influence Australian culture. And in just four days the marathon campaign to decide the President of the United States of America, leader of the free world, Commander in Chief of US military forces, will reach its climax. The race between George W. Bush, Governor of Texas and Al Gore, the Vice President, is proving impossible to predict.

The gyration of the polls from candidate to candidate has left pundits confused. Bush has emerged as the favourite, having established a sustained lead of three to four points in recent times; although the candidates are within the error bounds of each other. Indeed, in the race to win the States, Bush seems to be on the attack, with Gore consistently being forced to respond.

America's collegiate voting system means that the election is in fact a series of State races. It consists of a 'first past the post' election in every State, each sending a delegation to an Electoral College in proportion to the population. The candidate with the highest absolute number of votes takes all of the collegiate votes from the State. Moving around the country the candidates shore-up support where needed. Bush has been moving through Minnesota, Iowa and California, traditionally solid Democrat States that Gore should have solidly behind him. Gore has been forced to follow in his path, diverting resources from the more marginal places. However, on the strength of his policies in Social Security and Health, Gore has pulled ahead in the critical State of Florida, which he needs to win to stay in the race.

Gore is under additional pressure because as a result of the 'first past the post' election system, the candidate to win each State is the candidate with the most number of votes - unlike Australia there are no preferences. The effect of this is that a strong third party can pull votes away from one of the two primary candidates. Ross Perot's, candidature in the 1992 election pulled votes away from the Republicans and favoured Clinton over Bush. This time the strong running from Green candidate, Ralph Nader, an eloquent, and well respected former corporate watchdog (like America's version of Prof. Allen Fells), is likely to pull votes away from Gore in traditionally progressive States like Minnesota. The Democrats, fearing that a "vote for Nader is a vote for Bush" message will simply discourage progressive voters from turning out, are desperately trying to find a strategy to deal with this.

Notwithstanding Bush's current advantage, the race is still open. Gore supporters are hoping that the polls reflect an unofficial protest against Gore's wooden campaign performance and the unsavoury aspects of the Clinton administration. Americans are used to being polled and understand their significance. It is possible that such a protest could bias the polls, given that we a dealing with a relatively sophisticated demographic. In the absence of an overriding case for change, Democrats are hoping that voters will turn to Gore on the day - as the safer option.

Bush also has his problems. A recent study by a respected educational think tank (RAND) questioned the validity of studies showing improvements in educational standards in Texas - undermining a key campaigning point for the Republicans. Revelations of a drink driving charge (dating from 1976) against Bush have emerged late in the campaign - potentially damaging for a law and order Governor who has signed the death warrants of over thirty capital offenders this year.

The question for much of America is, will the outcome have any practical meaning? Both sides have moved so far to the centre. Gore promises to continue the policies of the Clinton administration, as a moderate Democrat, with Bush positioning himself as a "Compassionate Conservative". It seems that following the years of the failed Republican Revolution under Newt Gingrich, the conservatives are ready to put their ideological zeal on hold in order to achieve the reigns of power. The question is, in an era of poll driven policies and moderate politics, would the behaviour of either candidate in office be significantly different? One potential area of real difference is the Supreme Court.

Over the next presidential term, up to four Supreme Court judges are expected to retire. The President appoints their replacements, providing an historic opportunity to shape the make-up of the bench. The historic Roe v Wade decision, overruling State laws against abortion, effectively allows choice throughout the country. Recently, a narrow four:five majority upheld the decision. The Democrats are campaigning heavily on Bush's pro-life position, claiming that further conservative appointments to the bench will upset the balance and result in the overturning of the right to abortion, as well as a number of decisions allowing the Federal Government to pass laws regarding the environment. Pro-choice groups are campaigning on this issue in an attempt to put pressure on potential Nader voters.

Despite the rush to the centre, in the policy detail there are distinct differences between the candidates. Bush is promising a tax cut plan that would deliver half of the total cut to the top 1% of income earners, whilst Gore proposes a more moderate range of targeted tax relief. Bush, from Texas, has a well-established alliance with the oil companies and believes that environmental standards ought to be achieved through negotiation with industry. Gore has demonstrated his environmental credentials by his commitment at the Kyoto negotiations to establish an international framework from Greenhouse gas reductions.

Australia, a small English-speaking nation heavily influenced by American culture, has a vital interest in America taking an active interest in world affairs. Gore has a solid track record as an internationalist; Bush is an isolationist. What would happen to America's commitment Europe, the Balkans, Indonesia/East Timor, and the Middle East? It is critical for Australia's interests that America remains engaged with the rest of the world and committed to globalisation. For right or wrong, Australia has invested much in its relationship with America and an isolationist America leaves Australia out in the cold.

But the time for speculation is drawing to a close, with only four days to go our suspense is soon to be lifted. This time next week, we'll have a new leader of the free world. Whatever the outcome, there is unlikely to be any wake-up call to America.

Until next week, stay tuned to Workers Online for our post election spin.

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Issue 76 contents

Interview: Withering On The Vine
Cooking shows and 'Bugs fucking to Mozart' may become the staple diet on our ABC as news and current affairs face a war of attrition. Quentin Dempster gives Workers Online an insider's view of our endangered national broadcaster .

US Election: Sugar Candy Politics
Like in everything else, Americans like their politics sugar coated. A Nation in denial, they are happier maintaining the fantasy that the world is a fine and dandy place says Michael Gadiel.

US Election: George W. Bushwhacked by Texas Truth Squad
The Texas Truth Squad are a group of Texan union members travelling the US on a crusade to expose the Republican presidential nominee as a corporate rogue who in his time as Governer proved himself as an enemy of the worker.

History: Federation and the Labour Movement
National celebrations will mark the Centenary of Federation next year. The labour movement's opposition to Federation at the referenda held around the Australian colonies in 1899 will attract less commemoration, although the republicans of 1999 might have benefited from reflection on the causes of working class discontent one hundred years earlier says Stuart Macintyre.

International: Unions Mac Their Day
McDonald's - the biggest employer of young people around the world - is increasingly becoming the target of union recognition campaigns, backed by human rights groups concerned about the fast food chains practices in countries such as Indonesia, China, Russia, Canada and Germany.

Satire: Wiranto�s charity album inspires genocidal maniacs everywhere
Indonesia�s favourite former strongman, General Wiranto, has recently decided to record an album of love songs. Entitled To You My Indonesia, Wiranto�s album has already sold 8,000 copies and is raising money for refugees.

Review: What About the Workers?
A big, gruff bloke in a blue singlet, on strike or just not working, and generally being difficult. That's the trade unionist for you. Barry Cohen's new book What About the Workers? shows this image may have a bit of truth about it, but he would be telling a few good yarns while he was standing about.

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