
Issue No 73		13 October 2000

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Sport

Betting to win

By Peter Moss

Sick of losing on the punt Peter Moss turns to some Big Brains in academia for some help.

Spring is an uneasy time for the sports fan.

And this year it's worse.

Spewed out of the Olympic vortex into the vacuum that separates the end of real football and the advent of real (don't start) cricket.

You're a bit like whatsisname in Kubrick's 2001 - screaming soundlessly as you drift in a sickening weight-free spiral further and further away from the lights of the mothership.

'Will somebody please open that bloody pod door!?'

Passive, lifeless desparados may swallow the pantomime of desert one-day cricket, the international rules football or 82-0 scorelines in debris rugby league.

For the rest of us, as always, the sweet smell of horseflesh is the only tonic.

Not having given a single thought to matters equine for nine or ten months, I find myself putting aside the form guide for further study.

I glance sideways at the TAB as I motor by.

I call my Kiwi mate - an ex-horse-strapper - for a list of NZ longshots which might have snuck in under our lax immigration laws.

And I reflect on my own appalling big race punting record.

Fact: I have never won money on a Melbourne Cup.

Decision: This year will be different.

But I need expert advice.

Where better to turn than the experts on statistics and probability at the prestigious Sydney University School of Mathematics and Statistics.

First call is Terry Gagen, Associate Professor.

Straight up, he confesses to being 'a born loser'.

'Years ago I went to the famous Lexington, Kentucky, racecourse with three internationally-renowned mathematicians,' Terry says to illustrate.

'We arrived ten minutes before the last race and each picked a runner at random from a field of eight. Our horses ran fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth.

'I even pulled out of the Department's lotto syndicate because we didn't win for 18 months.'

Terry recommends I try his colleague Malcolm Quine, also an Associate Professor at the School of Mathematics and Statistics.

I think I'm getting warm when Malcolm reveals that he specialises in probability theory and has been hired as a consultant by NSW Lotteries and by poker machine manufacturers.

But Malcolm's straight up too: 'I don't gamble,' he says sombrely. 'Had a bet on the Melbourne Cup a few years back and did my dough.'

Malcolm confirms that the odds of winning big lottery and pokie payouts are 'in the millions to one'.

'You're almost guaranteed to lose money,' he says.

He reckons you could try blackjack but 'with eight decks in use you'll need a better memory than mine'.

Hope fading, I ask Malcolm whether he knows of any mathematician who does enjoy a punt.

'You want Doctor Bob,' he muses, and reels off a mobile telephone number.

Thirty seconds later Dr Robert Crossman is on the line and confirms that his interest in punting goes beyond the theory.

Formerly a lecturer at the School of Mathematics and Statistics, Dr Bob manages to earn at least part of his income through betting and games of chance.

Specifically, horse racing, poker and blackjack.

Like any successful gambler Dr Bob plays his cards close, but he says it is possible to win - if you devote serious time and effort to your chosen pursuit.

He estimates the number of viable professional and semi-professional gamblers in Australia is 'in the hundreds rather than the thousands'.

'For racing, they use sophisticated mathematical modelling and techniques to identify horses above the odds,' Br Bob says.

'They operate in units using computers and they have substantial backing. They aim for small edges but on large scales.'

Professionals don't completely eschew the standard win and place bet, but their focus is overwhelmingly on the exotic bets, especially trifectas.

'That's partly because there is less government take - about 20% - from the trifecta pool, compared to doubling up on three win bets where 15% goes from the pool each time,' explains Dr Bob.

'There is also more dead money in a trifecta pool, largely thanks to box trifectas taken by ordinary punters.'

And here Dr Bob has a useful tip for us mugs - play more standout trifectas and less boxes.

'At least weight it so you bet more units on the better chances.'

But for the lone casual punter Dr Bob's advice is blunt. 'Enjoy it, but don't give up your day job.

'You can improve your chances by developing a methodology that gives you an edge and information from within the industry can also give you an edge.'

Naturally, Dr Bob is reluctant to share the specifics of his own edges.

This gambling academic is also one of Australia's best poker players, having won prize money in domestic and international tournaments.

Poker, Dr Bob says, is as much a 'people game' as a game of chance.

'You certainly use maths skills, but to win you need to be able to read other people, you need self-discipline. Most important, you need to know and monitor yourself.'

While tournaments charge an entry fee and pay cash prizes to the best players, Dr Bob says you can also make money 'playing tight' in 'cash games', when the chips are worth real money.

'The method is to bet only when you have a premium or above average hand.'

In casinos, blackjack is the game offering the best odds for punters.

Dr Bob says most people could reduce their losses to the bank to 1% with some effort.

'There are plenty of quality books covering blackjack technique. If you study these and practice for one hour a day for a week, you will improve your position,' he suggests.

I bring the interview back to horse racing, the Spring Carnival and the Melbourne Cup, where my quest began.

Any tips, Dr Bob?

'Look for quality horses and quality trainers. You could do a lot worse than Bart Cummings in the cups.'

Well, I have done a lot worse. But not this year.

Peter Moss is a Director of Lodestar Communications

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Issue 73 contents

Interview: Righting The Wrongs
Improving the lives of Aboriginal people can't be taken out of the context of the economy, welfare and other areas says Bob McMullan, Shadow Minister for Aboriginal Affairs.

Economics: At The Mercy Of Gamblers
The plunge of the Australian dollar relative to the greenback has consequences for Aussie workers according to Frank Stillwell.

History: Labour History Under Seige Again
The Friends of the Noel Butlin Archives Centre have recently been informed of proposed changes to the Noel Butlin Archives Centre (NBAC), changes that will cut staff by more than 50% and leave the Archives mothballed in the tunnel where the repository is situated.

Workplace: Fighting The Flexible Firm
We are told that hardship and exploitation at work is dying out, and the new economy offers opportunity, freedom and job satisfaction for all. Richard Sennett unveils the true nature of the flexible workplace.

Safety: Being bossed around is bad for your health
A survey of more than 3,000 Australian workers has revealed that some 54% of workers experience intimidating behaviour in their workplace. In almost 85% of cases it is employers, managers and supervisors who are identified as the culprits.

Unions: Discrimination
New to the union and the maritime industry and with only a few days casual work to live off, Stephen Rolls courageously spoke up against individual contracts during a job interview with Burnie Port Corp.

International: Serbian Workers and Their Unions Fight for Freedom
Serbian workers and their unions have been at the forefront of the struggle for democracy in Yugoslavia as they led a general strike in response to attempts by President Slobodan Milosevic to nullify the defeat he faced in the Sept. 24 election.

Satire: A few more years of civilised brutality will advantage Aborigines: Ruddock
CANBERRA, Tuesday: The Minister for Reconciliation Philip Ruddock has defended his comments to French newspaper Le Monde claiming that Aborigines were disadvantaged because they were late in coming into contact with developed civilisations.

Review: Poetry For Workers By Workers
Poems about the trials and tribulations of a waitress and what you learn in a chocolate factory are among the gems from the 925 anthology.

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