
Issue No 5		19 March 1999

Campaign Diary

The Ultimate Punt

By Peter Lewis

As the leaders slug it through the final weeks of the campaign, the armchair critics get their chance to work their pet election theories.

Turn the radio on and as much air time is being given to the professional pollsters as to the politicians on whose fates they prognosticate.

Election campaigns have become so devoid of ideological content, that there is plenty of surplus energy to channel into the horse race and, as a lover of the punt, Workers Online can't resist having a go ourselves.

In the past week, the campaign proper has all become a bit of a blur. The simultaneous campaign launches were nothing if not predictable; there's been the constant stream of set-piece promises and no obvious gaffes.

The Labor advertisements have been safe and effective, while the Libs continue to run negative. This reflects the parties relative positions in the published polls: Labor are in the lead and want to keep a steady ship, while the Liberals are desperately trying to claw their way back into the contest.

So how will it play out in the final week? There are three theories afoot:

Theory One: The Landslide

Carr holds his lead in the polls, sweeping to power and picking up seats through Sydney and the bush. This scenario is based on two premises: first that the polls putting him 55-45 ahead are correct and second that the swings will be uniform.

There's big question marks over both these assumptions. With a large undecided vote, at this point above ten per cent, the 10 point lead is illusory. Moreover, more women are undecided and women are still more likely to vote for Chikka.

The rule of thumb is that 40 per cent of voters are undecided in the final week of an election and 40 per cent of these don't make their mind up until they are actually in the polling booth.

A further red herring is the fact that, unlike in the federal election, there is no automatic flow of preferences. If voters just put a "1" in a box, say the Democrats, their vote is exhausted; so the assumption behind the two party split equalling 100 per cent is wrong.

Theory Two: The Scattergun

The swing to Carr holds, but is not translated across the board, leaving the election hanging on a few desperately tight marginal seats.

This is what occurred in the federal election; Labor won back its heartland, but the big swings came in safe Labor seats. Labor won 51 per cent of the vote, but fell eight seats short.

According to this theory, the election will be decided in a handful of hotly contested marginal seats like Ryde, Kogarah and Strathfield. Remember, the redistribution means that Labor actually needs to win seats to hold office so if the Coalition can control the marginals as well as it did last October, they could still snatch office.

The thing about marginal seats is that it can be very localised issues that carry the day. A survey in one key marginal, for instance, had the main issue as aircraft noise. This is a purely federal issue, so how this translates into votes is anyone's guess: will voters blame the State Government or the Coalition for the sins of their federal colleagues?

If you subscribe to this theory, it might be just as scientific to toss a coin.

Theory Three: Too Close To Call

The trend over the last two elections continues and the big poll leads enjoyed by the incumbents two weeks out disappear into thin air and the election becomes a knife edge. In 1991, Greiner was 14 per cent ahead a fortnight before the poll. Fahey had an eight point lead at the same point in 1995. In both cases the result came down to one or two seats.

The Libs will be hoping history repeats itself. Unfortunately for them there are a couple of distinguishing features in this campaign. First, Chikarovski has gone nowhere near approaching the constant pressure which Carr applied from Opposition. Second, the Liberals are proposing a radical reform agenda, including power privatisation which has little community support.

To narrow the gap like Carr did, the Liberals need to pull a few rabbits out of the hat. With the power sale proceeds there's no shortage of cash, but its hard to imagine what they could come up with to turn the electorate in less than seven days.

So who'll win?

A week out, you'd rather be Carr but there is a bit of politics to be played out yet. For mine, I think Theory two will prevail, with Labor's marginal seat campaigns building on Carr's campaigning superiority to get the advantage needed to win.

Then again, I tipped Labor to win the last two federal elections..

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  Issue 5 contents

Interview: Towards An Information International
FIET general secretary Phillip Jennings talks about the development of the Union Network International and its potential to organise globally.

Unions: The Integral Price of Loyalty
Workers at Integral Energy are asking for their share of the fruits of power reform.

History: A Very Public History
Historian Ray Markey and Public Service Association General Secretary Janet Good take a look at the union�s first 100 years.

Review: Bullworth - Beatty�s Political Rap
Warren Beatty makes some gutsy calls in his new film about a politician who, when all else fails, tries the truth.

Campaign Diary: The Ultimate Punt
As the leaders slug it through the final weeks of the campaign, the armchair critics get their chance to work their pet election theories.

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