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Issue No. 223 | 04 June 2004 |
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Last Year�s Model
Interview: The New Democrat Bad Boss: The Ugly Australian Unions: Free Spirits and Slaves Industrial: National Focus History: A Class Act International: Across the Ditch Economics: Home Truths Review: No Time Like Tomorrow Poetry: Silent Note
The Soapbox The Soapbox The Locker Room Politics
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News Trade Deal a $47 Billion Dud
Modelling carried out by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) to be presented to a Senate Inquiry this week, says the deal would give away political sovereignty and kill off any hopes of Australia becoming a Knowledge Economy � at huge long-term costs.
The research, commissioned by the AMWU, disputes the Howard Government's argument that the deal will deliver a $52.5 billion windfall over 20 years. The stark differences in projections are based on National Economics' analysis that the loss in sovereignty implicit in the trade deal will have long-term economic consequences. "The United States is a first class knowledge-based economy. Australia is not," the report finds. "The loss of sovereignty provisions in the AUSFTA will probably ensure that Australian will never become a knowledge-intensive economy." The economists argue that if governments, state and federal, sign up to the FTA, Australia would "return to its pastoral origins; a return to an economy almost totally reliant on its national resource base". And they warn that while Australia's overall rate of growth may still be satisfactory, the country will become "more ungovernable as time goes by". The NEIER report attempts to quantify this loss of sovereignty, projecting a 25 percent chance the economic loss would exceed $52,4 billion and a 75 per cent chance it would be more than $42 billion. Key drivers in thyis loss would include opening up Australian Government procurement markets, lifting restrictions on foreign capital inflow, ending pharmaceutical benefits and 'knowledge spill-overs '. It rejects the Howard Government's economic advice from the Centre of International Economics, on the basis that they attribute zero cost to the loss of national economic sovereignty. AMWU national secretary Doug Cameron will present the research to the Senate Inquiry, backing the union's $100,000 national billboard campaign imploring the PM not to sell off Australian jobs. The union will erect billboards in Adelaide, Perth, Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney, drawing attention to massive job losses forecast in the modelling.
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