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Campaign Diary

Week Two: Fightback

By Peter Lewis

Labor's doing everything to win a normal campaign - but this is no normal campaign.

Weekend: The Worm Turns

OK, we all know the worm is superficial, unscientific and downright schmaltzy - but when it turns your way it's a beautiful piece of modern campaign paraphernalia. The worm turned for Kim on Sunday night and maybe, just maybe, the tide of the election will turn with it. For once the punters got it right, a focused - even concise - Beazley performed way above a wooden and cautious Howard, particularly on the issues publicly thought to be Labor millstones, such as refugees. On the broader issues like education and the future of Australia Howard was positively myopic.

For mine the killer point was Beazley's recount of the so-called 'flip-flop' on the Tampa legislation. Howard's words were turned on himself as the Beaze clearly explained how it was the PM who had changed his position on the contentious legislation. And when Howard rejected the offer of another debate at the end of this one, he opened himself up to another salvo - this time the dreaded 'ticker". Funny how insults come around to haunt the slinger.

The debate 'victory' also neutralised the Liberals' latest personal attack against Cheryl Kernot - being orchestrated by their prize head-kicker Tony Abbott. The Mad Monk's showdown with Kernot on Lateline on Friday night was a bizarre piece of television that highlighted the strains of a tough campaign. But the enduring image is of Abbott's smug denials of any wrong-doing. If there is any Karma in politics Kernot will be returned in Dickson to take a place on the front bench and the Monk will lose Pittwater to independent Ian McDonald in a boil-over.

Monday: Fight This Disease

Anthrax scares arrived in Australia, serving to hose down any thought that the Great Debate is anything more than a morale booster for labor. With Howard due to attend APEC in Beijing next week and play the international statesman, Beazley's cussed luck continues. Again, all the PM had to do was call for calm and he was part of the lead news story. The task of placing domestic issues at the heart of the campaign without trivialising the international events is close to impossible. Worse still, Howard is using his "international obligations' to justify his dogging of a second debate, as if there are more important things for a PM to do than debate his opponent.

While the Worm has given Labor a bit of campaign momentum, so have the Ansett workers who are still pursuing Howard Ministers from one end of the electorate to the other. Saturday it was Howard, with a media top-off seeing a convoy of Ansett workers follow the media bus out to Epping RSL. Today the Mad Monk got the treatment, when the workers crashed a doorstop at the government offices. It's a military-type operation - media tip-offs are conveyed to the nearest 'flying squad' of Ansett workers who make a beeline to the event. They have become the wallpaper for the election campaign and, for Howard, it's not such a pretty picture.

Both leaders were in Adelaide today - a state where the seats are marginals, the voters are fickle and the Democrats are strong. Plus they're the only remaining Liberal state. Their respective pitches said much about their priorities: Howard's vision was for business reform Meanwhile, Beazley was focusing on the salinity of the Murray, part of his "My Plan for South Australia". It further underlines the truism that national politics is local ... except when we are at war.

Tuesday: Dirty Tricks

Bizarre theory of the day: Howard tanked the debate so Beazley doesn't look such an under-dog - Bizarre, but its one line going around town. No big mistakes, but Howard's objective was to let Beazley into the ball-park. Sounds like crap to me, but I've learnt never to underestimate the cynicism of politicians. Conspiracy theories aside, the debate has given the Labor campaign some momentum in the key marginals where Beazly needs to find a few seats to form government. The emerging issue though, is ensuring some of those already held are not lost in the post-Tampa backwash.

The political debate has been back on issues of defence - should Howard attend APEC? Should we have a Coast Guard? And who where should the Collins subs be built? Howard goes the low blow by announcing they will be built in Adelaide, rather than in Beazley's electorate - a decision that left Kim eating more than a little humble pie. Meanwhile, the government's mishandling of the ABC is coming home to roost, with a series of targeted leaks from the ABC Board against the cable0-salesman and former Young Lib Jonathon Shier, the man brought in to politicse the ABC who has turned it into a killing field. Even Howard's mate Don McDonald is refusing to declare his support.

But the highlight of the day was Costello on Brisbane radio. His dodgy voice, questionable rhythm and total absence of a tone become the story of the day as he attempts to belt out Money, Money, Money - it is possibly the most embarrassing play since Alexander Downer's infamous Things That Batter speech which spelt the end of his leadership of the Liberals. When will they learn - humorous Tories are a contradiction in terms.

Wednesday: Budget Holes

Tricky politics triumphs with the Liberals announcement of the revised budget deficit, preempting tomorrow's announcement of the charter of budget honesty. We should probably call this one the chart of dishonesty. While the Charter of Honesty requires prior notice to and scrutiny by the opposition, the revised Budget forecasts are the government's only. By moving the revisions forward two months, The Smirk got first look and first spin.

The main problem with the figures is that the reduced budget wedges Beazley in - there isn't much room to manouvre in policy terms. But no talk of mismanagement - this was put down to the international situation - no talk of the boondoggling earlier this year that wiped out the bulk of the budget buffer in underwriting petrol prices. Instead of shoddy management, this is just another reason to stick with the conservatives. The bottom line is Labor's scope for spending initiatives and rollback is disappearing before its eyes.

But again it is the war that takes center-stage on the evening news, with Howard's announcement to send troops to Afghanastan giving him the dream ride into the prime news slot. Beazley could look as sombre and determined, but it was Howard who received the call from Dubya. It will get worse this weekend, when Howard rubs shoulder with world leaders in Shanghai - ironically it is the APEC forum that Keating championed, but Howard pooh-poohed which is providing the platform for this manufactured statesmanship.

Thursday: Lies and Damn Statistics

Labor's GST rollback has become the latest casualty of war; hot on the heels of truth and freedom of speech. Beazley admitted as much today, conceding the rollback would be modest. Months ago Costello promised to spend his surplus before Labor could - and on this promise, at least, the government delivered. The Charter of Budget Honest is released - a shortened version of yesterday's hijack. The bottom line is the same: there's no money to play with.

Meanwhile, the war gathers pace as Howard farewells the boys, Anthrax scares hit more Sydney targets and the US Congress is evacuated. The election is dropping further and further down the news schedules, with significant policy launches like Labor Banking Charter going through to the keeper. Old Zen riddle: if a policy is announced and noone hears it, is it really announced? Time will tell.

The interesting sidelight to the election campaign is the jousting between The Greens and the Australian Democrats. The Greens have sought a debate, but Natasha has knocked them back on the ground that the democrats are a "major party'. Wishful thinking, which could seem even more deluded if the polls are indicative. The leadership change has not helped the Dems, their Change Politics theme is very eighties and the Greens are stronger on the ground, meaning that their natural base of progressive young types is seriously compromised. Both can expect some spill from Labor over its line on refugees, but with the polls showing the electorate's swing to the right, we could see the minors fighting over a small chunk of the vote.

Friday: Cut the Dosage

The happy pills are beginning to wear off. This is just such a difficult campaign for Labor. Try as I am, to running the upbeat campaign diary, the reality is hitting home: this is the campaign from hell. No media space, no money, a scared and confused electorate. The environment is all wrong for Labor's strategy of hitting hard and late with their policies. The polls are not turning and Labor faces the very real prospect of going backwards - perhaps a long way backwards.

I wrack my brains for a circuit-breaker - how can you cut through? The only thing that occurs to me is if Labor had played Tampa differently - actually taken the principled stand over the political fix. What if Beazley had argued the toss on Tampa - pushed for a more humanitarian approach that treated the boatpeople as refugees deserving of compassion. Sure, he would have copped a talkback backlash for a few weeks, but posy September 11 he would have had a different story to tell from Howard - about how the refugees were the victims of the Taliban. It would have been a clear differentiation - and it would have been in the first news bracket.

Bob McMullan put it beautifully at a Press Club lunch a few weeks ago: the first instincts of the electorate are to look inward at a time of crisis; the second its to show compassion. If the battle between Howard and Beazley were a contest of these two instincts, Beazley would have had a glorious campaign to run. If he failed he'd be a Labor hero, and the chances of victory would have been greater than the handicap we're running at the moment. Alas, Labor voted to neutralize the Tampa. And now they're left trying to sell a GST rollback with no budget to play with.

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  Issue 116 contents

»	Unions Triumph in Bra Battle
»	Ansett's Redundancy Edict: Hand in Uniforms
»	Economic Management Libs Style: Porkbarrelling And Profligacy
»	Long Hours Ranks Swell
»	Extra Security Urged at Chemical Sites
»	Regional Airport Security Ignored By Anderson
»	"Sack or Back" Shier
»	Backpay For Exploited Guest Workers
»	Nurses to Test New Equal Pay Laws
»	Libs Back Unions as Compo Police
»	Racism Rocks Workplaces
»	Community of Sydney to Back CFMEU
»	Green Activist Restrictions Lifted
»	Hotel Union Cautious About Employer Gloom
»	International Workers to Converge on Sydney
»	Workers' Bank Opens Shopfront
»	Face The Music And Shove It Up The Junta!
»	Activists Notebook

»	The Soapbox
»	The Locker Room
»	Trades Hall
»	Tool Shed

»	Joy is at it Again!
»	The Extra Yards
»	Water Aid
»	Redunancy Under Attack
»	Orwell No Anarchist
»	Ways Around Treaty Rights

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