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Campaign Diary

Election Form Guide

By Peter Lewis

So they're off and racing in the 2001 stakes. Right now it's looking more like a handicap, but we're going along for the ride.

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Once the Manoora had dumped its human cargo on Nauru it was never going to be long before the PM went to the polls. So now the election is upon us, what can w e expect? Is it as bad as the polls seem? Can Kim get up a head of scheme?

Ah, the joy of punditry. None is more speculative than just a few hours after the announcement. Your heart says one thing, your head tells it to get real. But for what it's worth, here are some random thoughts as the campaign kicks off:

* After weeks of big, big news - Tampa, terror and Ansett - will our political leaders be able to step up to the plate? In normal times, the daily doorstop with the media circus is enough to top the news. But with the world at war, will they even make the first bracket?

* There is no doubt the external events have all worked in Howard's favour. Love him or loathe him, you can't deny his luck. But now the election is on he's got to convince the punters he'll be around for longer than it takes to clean up after the election party. The Beazley line on Costello's inexperience in defence isn't a bad one and you can expect more of it in coming weeks.

* Howard loves cover. Howard is a wooden performer and the less attention he gets the more likely he is to succeed. Remember 1998? He scheduled the campaign to run through the Commonwealth games and the footy finals series and it worked a dream. For this reason, Howard's will be hoping like hell that hostilities to break out abroad, giving him the opportunity to act statesmanlike.

* While there's no denying Beazley's love for international diplomacy, his best chance lies in the tedium of non-engagement. If he can cut through the blanket coverage of the war on terror, he will get the chance to much his education-health platform, where government is put back into the equation as part of the solution, rather than an unnecessary on-cost.

* The GST is still lurking as a targeted issue for small business, in particular. Thankfully, there won't be space for a stunt a day, but expect some rollback. The question that intrigues me is: will anyone care?

* Get ready for the usual union-bashing. The Mad Monk is poised - the Building Royal Commission will still commence in the next fortnight with the old sucker pucnh set-up of airing the allegations before the election, testing them afterwards. But hitting the unions is a core strategy from the one party that is still truly ideological..

* Ansett will not go away. There's a lot of angry Ansett workers, ready to do their uniforms and make life tough for Howard, Anderson et al. Expect them to popping up wherever there is a chance to extract a little revenge.

* Labor has one advantage. Despite the best efforts of the branch-stackers, they still have a network of rank and filers, plus a support base in the industrial wing, which will deliver superioir numbers on the ground. Campaigning is about doing the little things right and, on the ground, Labor will outperform the government.

* Thankfully for Labor, the Tampa issue is dead for now. Watch, though, for the leakage of support from the affluent middle classes to the Greens and Democrats in disgust at Labor's acquiescence to wedge politics. It may have been the only decision in the circumstances, but it will cost in the Senate. Labor candidates are reporting universal grief on Tampa - if they are not being bagged for being too soft, they are under the begun for being too hard.

* Forget One Nation. Tampa has neutralised them. Howard has done all a redneck isolationist could wish for.

* For mine, this election campaign will not be a test of the political leaders, it will also be a test of the Australian public. Are we really so easily manipulated that we will reward Howard's cynical populism on immigration? Or will our better sense of compassion - and self-interest- win over to take the focus away our fear of invasion.

* The Odds: I've done a straw poll and these are the best odds around:

Labor - 3-1

Coalition - 9-4 on

Democrats/Green Senate Balance 4-1

One nation polling anything - 50-1

We'll keep this diary as the campaign unfolds and revise these odds accordingly. I very wise punter once said "it's a funny, game, politics" and it would be good to get a laugh somewhere along the way.

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  Issue 114 contents

»	Corporate IT Training in Labor's Sights
»	Ansett Battle Moves to Top End of Town
»	Ansett Families Jeer Howard The Saboteur
»	Ansett Workers Hit the Hustings
»	Email Bullies in Medibank Pay-Back
»	Unions to Campaign Against Workplace Racism
»	WorkCover's Adverts 'Devoid of Meaning'
»	Principals Warn Of Critical Shortage
»	Nurses Release Federal Policy Proposals
»	The Aged Care Monster
»	IT Workers Get Union Voice
»	New Partnership for Sustainable Energy Industry
»	One Hundred Strike Over Crane Accident
»	CEPU Official for Telstra Board
»	Qld Casual Workers Pay Increases
»	The Workers United, Need a New Slogan!
»	Activists Notebook
»	Vale: Frank Belan

»	The Soapbox
»	Sport
»	Trades Hall
»	Tool Shed

»	The President and the Terrorist
»	Confessions of a Grand Final Loser
»	A Plan for Australia
»	Sleeping on the Job

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